Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Ignatieff angling for Liberal leadership?

This is one of the prime articles that set off rumours about Ignatieff trying to sabotage the by-election. It is from the Chronicle Herald. Interesting that an NDP win (that has now happened) is compared to cancer. It is more likely a benign tumour that will not grow much. The win by the NDP is a great breakthrough but it probably more due to the popularity of the candidate and the good campaigning plus Liberal division.

Dion loyalists charge byelection sabotage
But Ignatieff’s supporters deny trying to erode support for leader by waging losing campaign
By STEPHEN MAHER Ottawa Bureau | 4:41 AM

OTTAWA — Michael Ignatieff supporters are sabotaging Liberal efforts in the Outremont byelection in hopes of weakening Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, Dion loyalists say.

A poll in La Presse of Montreal on Friday suggests the NDP may win a historic breakthrough in the riding on Monday. That would be a disaster for Mr. Dion, who personally selected international affairs expert Jocelyn Coulon as the Liberal candidate in what should be a safe seat in downtown Montreal.

Dion loyalists suspect Liberal organizers who support Mr. Ignatieff have been undermining the campaign, hoping that a loss would force Mr. Dion out of the leadership once Liberals realized that he couldn’t deliver seats in Quebec.

"I only know what I see, and I see some suspicious stuff," said one Liberal worker on the ground.

The Dion people say organizers in the riding have made a series of bizarre, counterproductive moves.

"There’s one of two options," said one source close to Mr. Dion. "There’s some folks there who are either grossly incompetent or intentionally malicious."

Dion loyalists are leaning toward the second option. They say Mr. Ignatieff’s supporters have refused offers of help from out-of-town volunteers and tried to stop high-profile Liberals like Ken Dryden and Justin Trudeau from campaigning in Outremont. They also tried unsuccessfully to block a rally tonight that will feature Mr. Dryden, Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Dion.

Mr. Ignatieff was not available for comment Friday.

Denis Coderre, a Quebec Liberal MP and key organizer in the province who supported Mr. Ignatieff for the leadership, said Friday that Quebec Liberals are united behind Mr. Dion.

"There’s no way" the party is divided, he said. "We are working hard. There’s one team and that’s Team Liberal, and tell them to try something else."

The Dion people have no proof that Mr. Ignatieff is orchestrating events, but they fear he is pushing Quebec Liberals to throw the byelection and then demand that Mr. Dion step down.

"If you’re going to do a putsch, the next step is somebody calling for Dion’s head," said a source close to Mr. Dion. "One might find that Michael himself is making calls."

Another Dion loyalist compared what’s happening to the internal battles between former leaders Jean Chretien and Paul Martin.

"It’s frustrating," the party worker said. "I had a moment of hope at the convention that that kind of internal division is behind us. Obviously that was a naive and silly thing to hope."

Friday’s poll shows NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair leading Mr. Coulon in Outremont by six points, just within the margin of error. Mr. Mulcair was the provincial Liberal environment minister until he fell out with Premier Jean Charest. Bilingual, well-known and media-savvy, he is likely the best candidate the NDP has ever run in Quebec.

The NDP has only ever won a seat in Quebec once, in a 1990 byelection. But the party has been making a concerted effort, and Jack Layton is the first NDP leader with roots in the province.

The Liberals are alarmed at the prospect of the NDP winning the seat.

"Our concern is that if they get a riding in Montreal, then there’s a risk that they’re like a cancer" and will spread, said one senior party official.

There are two other byelections taking place in rural Quebec on Monday: in Roberval-Lac-St-Jean and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot.

The La Presse poll suggests that the Bloc is ahead in Saint-Hyacinthe but the Tories have a slight lead in Roberval, formerly the seat of deputy Bloc leader Michel Gauthier.

Political strategists expect that if the Tories take that seat from the Bloc, it will strengthen the hand of Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the fall session of Parliament, which begins Oct. 16 with a new speech from the throne.

The Bloc has threatened to vote against the speech from the throne unless the Tories promise to withdraw Canadian troops from Afghanistan by 2009. But it may be harder for Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe to take a hard line if he has lost a seat to the Tories.

And if the NDP wins the traditionally Liberal riding of Outremont, it may make Liberals hesitant to vote to bring down the government. Strategists suggest Mr. Harper would then be less likely to compromise with the opposition parties, who are all pushing for a Canadian withdrawal from Kandahar province in Afghanistan.

( smaher@herald.ca)

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